《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载53

量子基金短短24小时内豪赚超10亿美元 让西蒙斯感到相形见绌

《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载53
解决市场的人

The MAn Who Solved The Market (53)

Around the same time, so-called mACro investors grabbed hEAdlines and instilled fear in global political leaders with their own distinct style. Instead of placing thousands of bets, like Simons, these traders made the bulk of their profits from a liMITed number of gutsy moves aimed at anticipating global political and economic shifts.

差不多在同一时间,所谓的宏观投资者抢占了头版头条,并以他们独特的风格让全世界领导人感到恐惧。这些交易员不像西蒙斯那样投下成千上万的赌注,他们的大部分利润来自有限却大胆的举动,旨在预测全球政治和经济变化。

Stanley Druckenmiller was one of the traders on the ascent. A shAGGy-haired Pittsburgh natIVe who had dropped out of a PhD program in economics, Druckenmiller was a top-performing mutual-fund manager before taking over George Soros’s billion-dollar hedge fund, the Quantum Fund. Thirty-five years old at the time, Druckenmiller arrived at his investment decisions after scrutinizing news and studying economic statistics and other information, aiming to place his trades well ahead of big global events.

斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒就是其中正在崛起的一人。他是匹兹堡人,长着一头蓬松的头发,于攻读经济学博士期间辍学,在接管乔治·索罗斯的数十亿美元量子基金之前,他是一位顶级的共同基金经理。德鲁肯米勒那时35岁,会在仔细研究新闻、学习经济统计数据和其他信息后作出投资决策,目的就是要在全球重大事件发生之前进行交易

It only took six months for Soros to regret hiring Druckenmiller. As Druckenmiller flew to Pittsburgh, Soros dumped his bond positions without even a warning, worried they were losers. Apprised of the move after landing, Druckenmiller found a nearby pay phone and called in his resignation.

索罗斯雇佣德鲁肯米勒仅6个月就后悔了。在德鲁肯米勒飞往匹兹堡的时候,索罗斯甚至没有发出警告就将他的债券头寸全部抛售掉了,索罗斯担心它们会造成损失。德鲁肯米勒在飞机着陆后得知了这一消息,他在附近找了一个付费电话提出了辞呈。

A bit later, back in the office, nerves calmed and apologies issued, Soros said he was departing for a six-month trip to EURope, a separation period to see if Druckenmiller’s early losing streak was due to “us having too many cooks in the kitchen, or whether you’re just inept.”

晚些时候回到办公室,索罗斯紧张的心情放松下来并向德鲁肯米勒道了歉,他说要飞去欧洲六个月,在这段分别的时间里,他想看看德鲁肯米勒早期失败的原因到底是“我们厨房里的厨师太多,还是只是你无能。”

Months later, the Berlin Wall dividing West Germany and East Germany was opened and eventually toppled. The world cheered, but investors worried the West German economy and its currency, the Deutsche Mark, would be crippled by a merger with much-poorer East Germany. That view didn’t make much sense to Druckenmiller; an influx of cheap labor seemed likely to bolster the German economy, not hurt it, and the German central bank could be expected to bolster its currency to keep inflation at bay.

几个月之后,分割东德和西德的柏林墙最终倒了。整个世界欢呼雀跃,但是投资者们担忧西德的经济和汇率——德国马克,如果和更贫穷的东德合并,德国马克将受到严重损害。这一观点对德鲁肯米勒来说没什么道理;廉价劳动力的涌入似乎将会提振而不是伤害德国的经济,而且德国中央银行在陷入困境时预计会通过提高汇率来控制通货膨胀。

“I had a very strong belief that the Germans were obsessed with inflation,” Druckenmiller recalls, noting that surging inflation after World War I had paved the way for the rise of Adolf Hitler. “There was no way they would let the currency go down.”

“我非常确信德国人对通胀非常执着,”德鲁肯米勒回忆,他特别提出一战后飙升的通胀给阿道夫·希特勒的崛起铺平了道路。“所以他们不可能让汇率下行的。”

With Soros out of the way, Druckenmiller placed a huge bet on deutsche marks, resulting in a gain of nearly 30 percent for the Quantum Fund in 1990. Two years later, with Soros back in New York and relations improved between the two men, Druckenmiller walked into Soros’s expansive midtown office to share his next big move: slowly expanding an existing wager against the British pound. Druckenmiller told Soros authorities in the country were bound to break from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and allow the pound to fall in value, helping Britain emerge from recession. His stance was unPOPular, Druckenmiller acknowledged, but he professed confidence the scenario would unfold.

没有索罗斯的干预,德鲁肯米勒豪赌德国马克,使得量子基金在1990年获得了将近30%的收益。两年后,索罗斯回到纽约,两个人的关系也有所改善,德鲁肯米勒会走进索罗斯在城中昂贵的办公室,与他分享下一个大动作:慢慢扩大对英镑的现有赌注。德鲁肯米勒告诉索罗斯,英国当局一定会脱离欧洲汇率机制,并允许英镑贬值,以帮助英国走出衰退。德鲁肯米勒认识到他的立场并不受欢迎,但是他声称对事态发展有信心。

Complete silence from Soros. Then, an expression of bewilderment.

索罗斯完全陷入沉默。然后,他露出困惑的表情。

Soros gave a look “like I was a moron,” Druckenmiller recalls.

德鲁肯米勒回忆说,索罗斯露出一个“就像我是个白痴”的表情。

“That doesn’t make sense,” Soros told him.

“根本没道理,”索罗斯告诉他。

Before Druckenmiller had a chance to defend his thesis, Soros cut him off.

在德鲁肯米勒有机会捍卫他的理论之前,索罗斯打断了他。

“Trades like this only happen every twenty years or so,” Soros said.

“这样的交易可能20年才发生一次,”索罗斯说。

He was imploring Druckenmiller to expand his bet.

他恳求德鲁肯米勒加大他的赌注。

The Quantum Fund sold short about $10 billion of the British currency. Rivals, learning what was happening or arriving at similar conclusions, were soon doing the same, pushing the pound lower while exerting pressure on British authorities. On September 16, 1992, the government abandoned its efforts to prop up the pound, devaluing the currency by 20 percent, earning Druckenmiller and Soros more than $1 billion in just twenty-four hours. The fund gained over 60 percent in 1993 and soon controlled over $8 billion of cash from investors, dwarfing anything Simons dreamed of managing. For more than a decade, the trade would be considered the greatest ever, a testament to how much can be made with heavy doses of savvy and moxie.

量子基金卖空大约100亿美元的英国货币。已经了解到发生什么或得出同样结论的对手们很快也采取了同样的行动,压低了英镑汇率,同时向英国当局施压。1992年9月16日,英国政府放弃了支撑英镑的努力,汇率贬值20%,这使索罗斯和德鲁肯米勒在仅仅24小时内赚了超过10亿美元。1993年量子基金收益超过60%,很快就从投资者手中控制了超过80亿美元现金,这让西蒙斯的管理梦想相形见绌。十多年间,这笔交易被前所未有的认为是最伟大的,这证明了凭借巨大的智慧和勇气可以创造多少财富

It was self-evident that the surest way to score huge sums in the market was by unearthing corporate information and analyzing economic trends. The idea that someone could use computers to beat these seasoned pros seemed far-fetched.

不言而喻,要想在市场上赚大钱,最可靠的办法就是挖掘企业信息、分析经济趋势。有人想用电脑打败经验丰富的专业人士的想法似乎有点牵强。

Jim Simons, still struggling to make money trADIng stocks, didn’t need any reminder. Kepler Financial, the company launched by former Morgan Stanley math and computer specialist Robert Frey that Simons had backed, was just plodding along. The firm was improving on the statistical-arbitrage strategies Frey and others had employed at Morgan Stanley by identifying a small set of market-wide factors that best explained stock moves. The trajectory of United Airlines shares, for example, is determined by the stock’s sensitivity to the returns of the overall market, changes in the price of oil, the movement of interest rates, and other factors. The direction of another stock, like Walmart, is influenced by the same explanatory factors, though the retail giant likely has a very sensitivity to each of them.

吉姆·西蒙斯仍在努力通过股票交易赚钱,这不需要任何提醒。开普勒金融,这是一家由前摩根士丹利数学和电脑专家罗伯特·弗雷创建、西蒙斯支持的公司,仍在艰难地前进。公司正在改进弗雷和其他人在摩根士丹利采用的统计套利策略,他们发现了一组能更好地解释股票走势的市场因素。比如,美联航股票的走势取决于股票对整体市场回报、油价变化、利率变动和其他因素的敏感性。另一只股票的走势,例如沃尔玛,也是受同样解释因素的影响,虽然这家零售巨头可能对每一个因素都非常敏感

(免责声明:仅供个人阅读学习及翻译参考。如有不准之处,请留言帮助改进)

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