《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载53
The MAn Who Solved The Market (53)
Around the same time, so-called mACro investors grabbed hEAdlines and instilled fear in global political leaders with their own distinct style. Instead of placing thousands of bets, like Simons, these traders made the bulk of their profits from a liMITed number of gutsy moves aimed at anticipating global political and economic shifts.
差不多在同一西蒙斯那样投下成千上万的赌注，他们的大部分利润来自有限却大胆的举动，旨在预测全球政治和 变化。，所谓的 抢占了头版头条，并以他们独特的风格让全世界领导人感到恐惧。这些 不像
Stanley Druckenmiller was one of the traders on the ascent. A shAGGy-haired Pittsburgh natIVe who had dropped out of a PhD program in economics, Druckenmiller was a top-performing mutual-fund manager before taking over George Soros’s billion-dollar hedge fund, the um Fund. Thirty-five years old at the time, Druckenmiller arrived at his investment decisions after scrutinizing news and studying economic statistics and other information, aiming to place his trades well ahead of big global events.
斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒就是其中正在崛起的一人。他是匹兹堡人，长着一头蓬松的头发，于攻读经济学博士期间辍学，在接管乔治· 的数十亿美元量子基金之前，他是一位顶级的共同基金经理。德鲁肯米勒那时35岁，会在仔细研究新闻、学习经济统计数据和其他信息后作出 决策，目的就是要在全球重大事件发生之前进行 。
It only took six months for Soros to regret hiring Druckenmiller. As Druckenmiller flew to Pittsburgh, Soros dumped his bond positions without even a warning, worried they were losers. Apprised of the move after landing, Druckenmiller found a nearby pay phone and called in his resignation.
A bit later, back in the office, nerves calmed and apologies issued, Soros said he was departing for a six-month trip to EURope, a separation period to see if Druckenmiller’s early losing streak was due to “us having too many cooks in the kitchen, or whether you’re just inept.”
Months later, the Berlin Wall dividing West Germany and East Germany was opened and eventually toppled. The world cheered, but investors worried the West German economy and its currency, the Deutsche Mark, would be cd by a merger with much-poorer East Germany. That view didn’t make much sense to Druckenmiller; an influx of cheap labor seemed likely to bolster the German economy, not hurt it, and the German central bank could be expected to bolster its currency to keep inflation at bay.
“I had a very strong belief that the Germans were obsessed with inflation,” Druckenmiller recalls, noting that surging inflation after World War I had paved the way for the rise of Adolf Hitler. “There was no way they would let the currency go down.”
With Soros out of the way, Druckenmiller placed a huge bet on deutsche marks, resulting in a gain of nearly 30 percent for the Quantum Fund in 1990. Two years later, with Soros back in New York and relations improved between the two men, Druckenmiller walked into Soros’s expansive midtown office to share his next big move: slowly expanding an existing wager against the British pound. Druckenmiller told Soros authorities in the country were bound to break from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and allow the pound to fall in value, helping Britain emerge from recession. His stance was unPOPular, Druckenmiller acknowledged, but he professed confidence the scenario would unfold.
Complete silence from Soros. Then, an expression of bewilderment.
Soros gave a look “like I was a moron,” Druckenmiller recalls.
“That doesn’t make sense,” Soros told him.
Before Druckenmiller had a chance to defend his thesis, Soros cut him off.
“Trades like this only happen every twenty years or so,” Soros said.
He was imploring Druckenmiller to expand his bet.
The Quantum Fund sold short about $10 billion of the British currency. Rivals, learning what was happening or arriving at similar conclusions, were soon doing the same, pushing the pound lower while exerting pressure on British authorities. On September 16, 1992, the government abandoned its efforts to prop up the pound, devaluing the currency by 20 percent, earning Druckenmiller and Soros more than $1 billion in just twenty-four hours. The fund gained over 60 percent in 1993 and soon controlled over $8 billion of cash from investors, dwarfing anything Simons dreamed of managing. For more than a decade, the trade would be considered the greatest ever, a testament to how much can be made with heavy doses of savvy and moxie.
量子基金卖空大约100亿美元的英国投资者手中控制了超过80亿美元现金，这让西蒙斯的管理梦想相形见绌。十多年间，这笔交易被前所未有的认为是最伟大的，这证明了凭借巨大的智慧和勇气可以创造多少 。。已经了解到发生什么或得出同样结论的对手们很快也采取了同样的行动，压低了英镑汇率，同时向英国当局施压。1992年9月16日，英国政府放弃了 英镑的努力，汇率贬值20%，这使索罗斯和德鲁肯米勒在仅仅24小时内赚了超过10亿美元。1993年量子基金收益超过60%，很快就从
It was self-evident that the surest way to score huge sums in the market was by unearthing corporate information and analyzing economic trends. The idea that someone could use computers to beat these seasoned pros seemed far-fetched.
Jim Simons, still struggling to make money trADIng stocks, didn’t need any reminder. Kepler Financial, the company launched by former Morgan Stanley math and computer specialist Robert Frey that Simons had backed, was just plodding along. The firm was improving on the statistical-arbitrage strategies Frey and others had employed at Morgan Stanley by identifying a small set of market-wide factors that best explained stock moves. The trajectory of United Airlines shares, for example, is determined by the stock’s sensitivity to the returns of the overall market, changes in the price of oil, the movement of interest rates, and other factors. The direction of another stock, like Walmart, is influenced by the same explanatory factors, though the retail giant likely has a very sensitivity to each of them.