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《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载49

文艺复兴保持神秘事出有因 曾有科学家因公司太低调而放弃加

《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载49
解决市场的人

The MAn Who Solved The Market (52)

Like most investors, Simons, too, became nervous when his fund went through rocky times. In a few rare circumstances, he reACted by paring the firm’s overall positions. On the whole, though, Simons maintained faith in his trADIng model, recalling how difficult it had been for him to invest using his instincts. He made a comMITment to refrain from overriding the model, hoping to ensure that neither Medallion’s returns, nor the emotions of his employees at Renaissance, influenced the fund’s moves.

像大多数投资一样,西蒙斯也在基金经历动荡时期时感到紧张。在极个别情况下,他的反应是削减公司整体头寸。然而总的来说,西蒙斯仍对他的交易模型抱有信心,让他回想起用直觉投资的时候是多么艰难。他承诺不会推翻这一模式,寄希望于确保大奖章基金的回报率和文艺复兴员工们的感情不会影响到基金的运作。

“Our P&L isn’t an input,” Patterson says, using trading lingo for profits and losses. “We’re mediocre traders, but our system never has rows with its girlfriends — that’s the kind of thing that causes patterns in markets.”

“我们的损益不是一个输入信息,”帕特森用交易术语描述盈利和亏损。“我们是普通的交易员,但是我们的系统从来不会有内部问题——这就是引起市场模式的那种事情。”

Simons hadn’t embraced a statistics-based approach because of the work of any economists or psychologists, nor had he set out to program algorithms to avoid, or take advantage of, investors’ biases. Over time, though, Simons and his tEAm came to believe that these errors and overreactions were at least partially responsible for their profits, and that their developing system seemed uniquely capable of taking advantage of the common mistakes of fellow traders.

西蒙斯还未接受以任何经济学家或心理学家的成果为基础的统计学方式,也没有开始编写算法来避免或利用投资者们的偏见。然而,随着时间流逝,西蒙斯和他的团队开始相信这些错误和过度反应至少与他们的盈利部分相关,而且他们开发的系统看起来是独一无二的,能够利用同行交易员们的常见错误。

“What you’re really modeling is human behavior,” explains Penavic, the researcher. “Humans are most predictable in times of high stress — they act instinctIVely and panic. Our entire premise was that human actors will react the way humans did in the past … we learned to take advantage.”

“你真正需要模仿的是人行为,”研究员佩纳维克解释说。“在高度压力下人是最容易预测的——他们会本能的反应和恐慌。我们整个假设是,人们将会像过去一样作出反应……我们要学会利用这一点。”

Investors finally begin taking note of Medallion’s gains. A year earlier, in 1993, GAM Holding — a London-based investment firm managing money for wealthy clients that was one of the first institutions to invest in hedge funds — had given Renaissance about $25 million. By then, Simons and his team had turned wary of sharing much of anything about how their fund operated, lest rivals catch on. That put GAM executives, accustomed to fully understanding details of how funds operated, in a difficult position. They’d confirm that Renaissance had proper audits, and that their investors’ money was secure, but GAM couldn’t fully understand how Medallion was making so much money. The GAM brass were thrilled with the results of Simons’s fund, but, like other clients, perpetually anxious about their investment.

投资者们终于开始注意到大奖章的收益情况。一年前,也就是1993年的时候,GAM公司——一家总部位于伦敦的投资公司,最早开始投资对冲基金的财富管理机构之一——给文艺复兴投资了大约2500万美元。直到那时候,西蒙斯和他的团队开始变得谨慎,不愿意披露基金运营的情况,以免对手窥视。这让习惯于全盘了解基金运营细节的GAM高管们陷入困境。他们确认文艺复兴有合适的审计,以及投资者的钱是安全的,但是GAM没法理解大奖章基金为什么会赚这么多钱。GAM的高管对西蒙斯基金的收益感到非常兴奋,但是像其他投资者一样,一直对他们的投资感到焦虑。

“I always lived scared, worried something would go wrong,” says David McCarthy, who was in charge of monitoring GAM’s investment in Medallion.

“我总是战战兢兢的,生怕会出什么差错,”大卫·麦卡锡说道,他是GAM公司负责监督大奖章投资的人。

Soon, Simons’s challenges would become apparent.

很快的,西蒙斯的挑战将变得愈发明显。

Simons did an about-face. By the end of 1993, Medallion managed $280 million, and Simons worried profits might suffer if the fund got too big and its trades started pushing prices higher when it bought, or lower when it sold. Simons decided not to let any more clients into the fund.

西蒙斯来了个大变脸。到1993年年底,大奖章管理着2.8亿美元,西蒙斯开始担忧如果基金规模过大将会影响盈利,而且在基金进行买卖的时候已经开始影响股价变动。西蒙斯决定不再接受任何投资者。

Simons’s team turned more secretive, telling clients to dial a Manhattan phone number for a recording of recent results and to speak with Renaissance’s lawyers if they needed detailed updates. The additional steps were to keep rivals from learning about the fund’s activities.

西蒙斯的团队变得更加神秘,他们告诉客户拨打一个曼哈顿的电话号码听取一段关于近期收益的录音,或者如果需要更新细节的话,则要跟文艺复兴的律师沟通。这些额外的措施都是为了不让对手了解基金的活动。

“Our very good results have made us well known, and this may be our most serious challenge,” Simons wrote in a letter to clients. “Visibility invites competition, and, with all due respect to the principles of free enterprise — the less the better.”

“我们的高收益让我们出了名,而这可能是我们最严峻的挑战,”西蒙斯在给客户的一封信中写道。“可见性会带来竞争,而且在尊重自由企业原则的前提下——披露的越少越好。”

Simons pressured his investors not to share any details of the operation.

西蒙斯向客户施压不能分享运营的任何细节。

“Our only defense is to keep a low profile,” he told them.

“我们唯一的防御就是保持低调,”他告诉客户们。

The secretive approach sometimes hurt the firm. In the winter of 1995, a scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratory’s Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider named Michael Botlo received a call from a Renaissance executive asking if he’d be interested in a job.

但这种秘密做法有时候会伤害到公司。1995年冬天,一位在布鲁克海文国家实验室研究相对论重离子对撞机的科学家迈克尔·波特罗接到了一个电话,这是文艺复兴的高管打来的问他是否有兴趣加入公司。

Fighting a snowstorm, Botlo drove his dented Mazda hatchback to Renaissance’s new offices located in a high-tech incubator close to a hospital and a dive bar near Stony Brook’s campus. Botlo entered the office, brushed off the snow, and was immediately underwhelmed by the small, tacky, beige-and-teal offices. When Botlo sat down to speak with Patterson and other staff members, they wouldn’t share even bare details of their trading approach, focusing instead on the inclement weather, frustrating Botlo.

迎着暴风雪,波特罗开着他那辆有凹损的马自达掀背车来到了文艺复兴的新办公室,办公室坐落在石溪分校附近的一家高科技孵化器内,靠近一家医院和一家潜水酒吧。波特罗走进办公室,抖落身上的雪,立刻对那间又小又俗气、淡棕色和青色相间的办公室失去了兴趣。当波特罗坐下开始跟帕特森和其他员工谈话的时候,他们甚至不愿意分享交易方式的任何细节,而是把注意力集中在恶劣的天气上,这让波特罗很沮丧。

Enough of the chitchat, he thought.

闲聊够了,他想。

Botlo was told Renaissance used a decade-old computer-programming language called Perl, rather than languages like C++ that big Wall Street trading firms relied upon, making him even more skeptical. (In reality, Renaissance employed Perl for bookkeeping and other operations, not its trading, but no one wanted to share that information with a visitor.)

波特罗被告知,文艺复兴还在用一种十年前的叫做Perl的计算机编程语言,而不是使用像华尔街大交易公司那样采用C语言,这让他更加怀疑。(事实上,文艺复兴使用Perl语言仅进行记账和其他运营,而不是交易,但是没人想要跟来访者分享这一信息。)

“It looked like four guys in a garage. They didn’t seem that skilled at computer science, and a lot of what they were doing seemed by the seat of their pants, a few guys dabbling at computing,” Botlo says. “It wasn’t very appealing.”

“看起来就像四个人在一间车库里。他们似乎不擅长计算机科学,所做的很多事情似乎都是凭感觉,有些人只是对计算机有涉猎,”波特罗说道。“这没什么吸引力。”

Days later, Botlo wrote Patterson a note: “I’ve chosen to learn the business properly by joining Morgan Stanley.”

几天后,波特罗给帕特森回了信:“我选择加入摩根士丹利学习这项业务。”

Ouch.

哇哦。

(免责声明:仅供个人阅读学习及翻译参考。如有不准之处,请留言帮助改进)

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