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《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载47

数学家帕特森在加盟文艺复兴之前干得是“007”的活儿

《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载47
解决市场的人

The MAn Who Solved The Market (50)

For a full month, Patterson surreptitiously jotted down the closing prices that Medallion used for various investments in its portfolio, carefully checking them against pages of the Wall Street Journal, line by line, to see if they matched.

整整一个月,帕特森将大奖章投资组合中的各种投资品的收盘价偷偷记下来,对照华尔街日报一行挨一行的仔细检查,看它们是否对得上。

Only after Simons’s numbers checked out did a relieved Patterson turn his full attention to using his mathematical skills to help the effort. It had taken Patterson yEArs to realize that he ACtually enjoyed math. Early in his life, math was just a tool for Patterson, one he used for protection. Patterson suffered from facial dysplasia, a rare congenital disorder that distorted the left side of his face and rendered his left eye blind. An only child who grew up in the Bayswater section of central London, Patterson was sent to Catholic boarding school and bullied unmercifully. Unable to speak with his parents more than once a week, and determined to maintain a stiff British upper lip, Patterson turned his prowess in the classroom into an advantage.

只有在西蒙斯的数字都得到验证之后,帕特森才放下心来,转而将他全部的注意力放到用数学技巧去解决问题上边。帕特森花了很久才意识到他其实很喜欢数学。在他早期生涯里,数学对帕特森而言只是用来保护自己的工具。帕特森患有面部发育不良,这是一种罕见的先天疾病,导致他的左脸变形、左眼失明。帕特森是独生子女,在伦敦市中心的贝斯沃特区长大。他被送到天主教寄宿学校,受到了无情的霸凌。有时候一周多都跟自己的父母说不上话,他决定保持英国人严肃的形象。帕特森把自己在课堂上的能力变成一种优势。

“I evolved into the school brain, a British stock character, “Patterson recalls.  “I was seen as odd but useful, so they left me alone.”

“我逐渐变成了学校里最聪明的人,一个英国人习以为常的角色,”帕特森回忆道。“他们认为我古怪但是很有用,所以并不理睬我。”

Patterson was mostly attracted to mathematics because he was über-competitIVe, and it was gratifying to discover a field he could dominate. Only at the age of sixteen did Patterson notice he actually enjoyed the subject. A few years later, after graduating from the UniveRSIty of Cambridge, Patterson took a job that required him to write commercial code. He proved a natural, gaining an advantage over fellow mathematicians, few of whom knew how to program computers.

帕特森之所以被数学吸引,主要是因为他具有超强的竞争力,而且这是一个可以由他主宰的领域。16岁的时候帕特森才注意到自己真的很喜欢这个学科。几年后,帕特森从剑桥毕业,找了一份写商业密码的工作。他证明了自己的天赋,取得了比同行数学家更大的优势,因为他们中很少有人知道如何编程

A strong chess player, Patterson spent much of his free time at a London coffee shop that rented chess boards and hosted intense matched between customers. Patterson regularly trounced players many years his senior. After a while, he deduced the shop was no more than a front — there was a secret staircase leADIng to an illegal, high-stakes poker game run by a local thug. Patterson gained entrance to the game and it quickly became clear he was a stud at poker as well, pocketing fistfuls of cash. The tough guy took notice of Patterson’s ablilities, making him an offer he figured Patterson couldn’t refuse: If you hustle chess down-stairs for me, I’ll share your winnings and handle all your losses.

作为一个国际象棋高手,帕特森经常花时间在伦敦的一家咖啡店里,这家店会出租国际象棋棋盘,让顾客们展开激烈的对弈。他经常击败许多比他年长的对手。后来,他推断这间店不只是个门面——店里有个秘密楼梯,通向一个当地恶棍经营的非法的高赌注的扑克游戏。帕特森因为高超的棋艺赢得了入场券,很快,人们就发现他在扑克方面也非常有天赋,能赢走大把的现金。庄家很快注意到了帕特森的能力,并提出一个他认为帕特森无法拒绝的提议:如果你能替我在楼下玩国际象棋,我会给你分成并承担所有损失。

There was no risk to Patterson, but he rejected the offer, nonetheless. The brute told him he was making a big mistake.

尽管这虽然对帕特森没什么风险,但是他拒绝了。那个恶棍告诉他,他犯了个大错。

“Are you nuts? You can’t make any money in mathematics,” he sneered.

“你傻么?在数学里你赚不到钱,”他冷笑道。

The experience taught Patterson to distrust most moneymaking operations, even those that appeared legitimate — one reason why he was so skeptical of Simons years later.

这个经验告诉帕特森不要信任大多数赚钱的营生,甚至是那些看起来合法的——这也是后来他为什么如此怀疑西蒙斯的原因。

After graduate school, Patterson thrived as a cryptologist for the British government, building statistical models to unscramble intercepted messages and encrypt secret messages in a unit made famous during World War II when Alan Turing famously broke Germany’s encryption codes. Patterson harnessed the simple-yet-profound Bayes’ theorem of probability, which argues that, by updating one’s initial beliefs with new, objects information, one can arrive at improved understanding.

研究生毕业后,帕特森成了为英国政府工作的密码破译家,建立统计模型去解读被拦截的信息,并把秘密信息加密,他所在的小组曾因二战时阿兰·图灵破译德军密码而闻名。帕特森利用了简单但深奥的贝叶斯概率定理,该定理认为,通过用新的对象信息更新初始信念,可以取得更好的理解。

Patterson solved a long-standing problem in the field, deciphering a pattern in the data others had missed, becoming so valuable to the government that some top-secret documents shared with allies were labeled “For US Eyes Only and For Nick Patterson.”

帕特森解决了该领域中一个长期存在的问题,破解了其他人错过的数据模式,这对政府来说非常有价值,以至于一些要跟盟军分享的绝密文件上贴上了“仅供美国和尼克·帕特森”查阅的标签。

“It was James Bond stuff,” he says.

“是詹姆斯·邦德的那一套,”他说。

Several years later, when a new pay scale was instituted that elevated the group’s administrators above the cryptologists, Patterson became livid.

几年之后,当新的工资标准出炉,将管理者的收入提到密码学家之上,帕特森变得怒不可遏。

“It was the insult, not the money,” says Patterson, who told his wife he’d rather drive a bus than remain in the group. “I had to get out of there.”

“这是一种侮辱,不是钱的问题,”帕特森说道,他告诉妻子他宁愿去开公交车也不愿意继续待下去了。“我必须离开那里。”

Patterson moved to the Institute for Defense Analyses, where he met Simons and Baum, but he turned nervous as he approached his fiftieth birthday.

帕特森转去了IDA,在那里他认识了西蒙斯和鲍姆,但是当他快过50岁生日的时候,帕特森突然变得紧张起来。

“My father had a hard time in his late fifties, and that worried me,” recalls Patterson, who had two children at the time who were preparing to go to colleague. “I didn’t have enough money, and I didn’t want to go down that road.”

“我父亲在五十多岁的时候过的很艰难,这让我很担忧,”帕特森回忆说,那时候他已经有两个准备上大学的孩子。“我没有足够的钱,而且我也不想走这条路。”

When a senior colleague received permission to travel to Russia for an amatEUR-radio conference, Patterson realized the Cold War was ending, and he had to act fast.

当一位资深同事被获准去俄罗斯参加一个业余无线电会议的时候,帕特森意识到冷战要结束了,自己必须快速做出反应。

I’m going to lose my job!

我要失业了!

Fortuitously, Simons soon called, out of the blue, sounding urgent.

意外的是,西蒙斯突然打来电话,听起来很紧急。

“We need to talk,” Simons said. “Will you work for me?”

“我们必须得谈谈,”西蒙斯说,“你愿意为我工作么?”

A move to Renaissance made sense to Patterson. Simons’s group was analyzing large amounts of messy, complicated pricing data to predict future prices. Patterson thought his natural skepticism could prove valuable discerning true signals from random market fluctuations. He also knew his programming skills would come in handy. And, unlike many of Renaissance’s dozen or so employees, Patterson actually read the business pages, at least occasionally, and knew a bit about finance.

文艺复兴公司工作对帕特森来说很合乎情理。西蒙斯的公司在通过分析大量杂乱的、复杂的价格数据去预测期货价格。帕特森认为,他与生俱来的怀疑的态度能证明,从随机市场波动中辨别出真正的信号是有价值的。他还知道他的编程能力将派上用场。并且,不像文艺复兴的其他十几名员工,帕特森至少会偶尔阅读商业版,对金融略有所知。

“I thought I was pretty cutting-edge because I owned an index fund,” he says.

“我曾觉得我相当前卫,因为我有一只指数基金,”他说。

Patterson saw the world “becoming extremely mathematical” and knew computer firepower was expanding exponentially. He sensed Simons had an opportunity to revolutionize investing by applying high-level math and statistics.

帕特森认为这个世界“将变得极其数学化”,并且认为计算机算力将呈几何级数增长。他觉得西蒙斯有机会通过采用高水平数学和统计学彻底改革投资界。

“Fifty years earlier, we couldn’t have done anything, but this was the perfect time,” he says.

“五十多年前,我们还什么都不能做,但是现在正是完美的时机,”他说。

After lugging a computer into the corner of Simons’s office and concluding that Renaissance likely wasn’t a fraud, Patterson began helping Laufer with a stubborn problem. Profitable trade ideas are only half the game; the act of buying and selling investments can itself affect prices to such a degree that gains can be whittled away. It’s meaningless to know that copper prices will rise from $3.00 a contract to $3.10, for example, if your buying pushes the price up to $3.05 before you even have a chance to complete your transaction — perhaps as dealers hike the price or as rivals do their own buying — slashing potential profits by half.

在把一台电脑拖进西蒙斯的办公室,并得出结论文艺复兴并不是骗子之后,帕特森开始帮助劳弗解决一个棘手的问题。可盈利交易理念仅仅是游戏的一半;买卖的行为本身就会影响价格,一定程度上会减少收益。比如,你知道铜价将从每合约3美元涨到3.10美元,甚至在你有机会买入之前,其他买入行为就会把铜价推高到3.05美元,潜在利润就将削减一半,那获知这一消息就是毫无意义的——价格上涨也许是交易商提高了价格,又或者是对手也在买进。

(免责声明:仅供个人阅读学习及翻译参考。如有不准之处,请留言帮助改进)

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