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《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载43

你不知道的金融投资史2:对冲基金之王大卫·肖给贝索斯提供了创业灵感

《The Man Who Solved The Market》中文版翻译连载43
解决市场的人

The MAn Who Solved The Market (43)

Well before the APT group closed for business, Robert Frey had become anxious. It wasn’t just that his boss, Tartaglia, wasn’t getting along with his superiors, suggesting the bank might drop the tEAm if losses arose. Frey, a heavyset man with a limp, the result of a fall in his youth that had shattered his leg and hip, was convinced rIVals were catching on to his group’s strategies. Thorp’s fund was already doing similar kinds oftrades, and Frey figured others were sure to follow. He had to come up with new tACtics.

在APT关门之前的很长时间里,罗伯特·弗雷就感到焦虑了。不仅仅是因为他的老板塔尔塔利亚与上司相处的不好,而且银行暗示如果团队亏损上升将放弃他们。弗雷体格健壮,由于年轻摔倒伤到了腿和臀部导致现在一瘸一拐,他确信对手正在效仿他们团队的策略。索普的基金已经在进行似的交易,而弗雷认为其他人也会跟进。他不得不想出新策略

Frey proposed deconstructing the movements of various stocks by identifying the independent variables responsible for those moves. A surge in Exxon, for example, could be attributable to multiple factors, such as moves in oil prices, the value of the dollar, the momentum of the overall market, and more. A rise in Procter&Gamble might be most attributable to its healthy balance sheet and a growing demand for safe stocks, as investors soured on companies with lots of debt. If so, selling groups of stocks with robust balance sheets and buying those with heavy debt might be called for, if data showed the performance gap between the groups had moved beyond historic bounds. A handful of investors and academics were mulling factor investing around that same time, but Frey wondered if he could do a better job using computational statistics and other mathematical techniques to isolate the true factors moving shares.

弗雷建议通过识别与股票走势相关的自变量来解构各种股票的走势。比如,埃克森美孚的股票飙升可以归结于多个因素,诸如油价波动、美元价值、整体市场的走势等。而宝洁的上涨则主要是因为其健康的资产负债表,以及投资者日渐增长的,对高负债公司的厌恶和对安全股票的需求。要是这样的话,如果数据显示两股票的表现差距已经超过历史水平,或许就需要卖出资产负债表稳健的股票,而买入负债严重的股票。同一时期,部分投资者和学者正在考虑“因子投资”,但是弗雷想知道如果他采用电脑化统计和其他数学技巧能否更好的将真正影响股票走势的因素找出来。

Frey and his colleagues couldn’t muster much interest among the Morgan Stanley brass for their innovative factor approach.

弗雷和同事们的创新因子方法并没有引起摩根士丹利高层的多大兴趣。

“They told me not to rock the boat,” Frey recalls.

弗雷回忆说,“他们告诉我不要乱来”。

Frey quit, contacting Jim Simons and winning his financial backing to start a new company, Kepler Financial Management. Frey and a few others set up dozens of small computers to bet on his statistical-arbitrage strategy. Almost immediately, he received a threatening letter from Morgan Stanley’s lawyers. Frey hadn’t stolen anything, but his approach had been developed working for Morgan Stanley. Frey was in luck, though. He remembered that Tartaglia hadn’t allowed him or anyone else in his group to sign the bank’s nondisclosure or noncompete agreements. Tartaglia had wanted the option of taking his team to a rival if their bonuses ever disappointed. As a result, Morgan Stanley didn’t have strong legal grounds to stop Frey’s trADIng. With some trepidation, he ignored Morgan Stanley’s continuing threats and began trading.

弗雷辞了职,与吉姆·西蒙斯取得联系,并获得他的资金支持开始一家新公司——开普勒金融。弗雷和几个人装备了几十台小型电脑,押注在他的统计套利策略上。但立时三刻,他就收到了摩根士丹利律师的威胁信。弗雷并没有窃取任何东西,但是他采用的方法是被研发出来为摩根士丹利工作的。然而弗雷很走运。他想起来塔尔塔利亚没让他和团队的其他人签署银行的保密或竞业协议。塔尔塔利亚曾想,如果奖金让人失望的话,他还有把团队带到竞争对手那里的机会。结果,摩根士丹利没有强大的法律依据阻止弗雷的交易。带着些许不安,弗雷无视了摩根士丹利持续的威胁开始交易。

By 1990, Simons had high hopes Frey and Kepler might find success with their stock trades. He was even enthused about his own Medallion fund and its Quantitative-trading strategies in bond, commodity, and currency markets. Competition was building, however, with some rivals embracing similar trading strategies. Simons’s biggest competition figured to come from David Shaw, another refugee of the Morgan Stanley APT group. After leaving the bank in 1988, the thirty-six-year-old Shaw, who had received his PhD from Stanford UniveRSIty, was courted by Goldman Sachs and was unusual whether to accept the job offer. To discuss his options, Shaw turned to hedge-fund manager Donald Sussman, who took Shaw sailing on Long Island Sound. One day on Sussman’s forty-five-foot sloop turned into three, as the pair debated what Shaw should do.

到1990年,西蒙斯对弗雷和开普勒抱有很高期望,想着也许他们能从股票交易中取得成功。他甚至对他自己的大奖章基金和其在债券、商品和货币上采用的量化交易策略充满热情。然而竞争已经开始,一些对手也使用了类似的策略。西蒙斯最大的竞争来自大卫·肖,另一个来自摩根士丹利APT小组的难民。肖在斯坦福大学获得博士学位,1988年离开银行后,36岁的他受到了高盛的青睐,但对于是否接受这份工作他非常犹豫。为了讨论他的选择,肖求助于对冲基金经理唐纳德·萨斯曼,萨斯曼带着肖在长岛海峡航行。当他们在萨斯曼45英尺高的单桅帆船上讨论肖应该怎么办的时候,一天的航行变成了三天。

“I think I can use technology to trade securities,” Shaw told Sussman.

“我认为我能利用科技进行证券交易,”肖告诉萨斯曼说。

Sussman suggested that Shaw start his own hedge fund, rather than work for Goldman Sachs, offering a $28 million initial seed investment. Shaw was swayed, launching D.E. Shaw in an office space above Revolution Books, a communist bookstore in a then-gritty part of Manhattan’s Union Square area. One of Shaw’s first moves was to purchase two ultrafast and expensive Sun Microsystems computers.

萨斯曼建议肖创建他自己的对冲基金,而不是为高盛工作,并给他提供了2800万美元的种子投资。肖被说服了,在革命书屋楼上的一间办公室里创办了D.E.Shaw。革命书屋是一家共产主义书屋,位于曼哈顿联合广场一处当时还很粗糙的地方。肖的第一步就是买了两台超快而且昂贵的太阳电脑。

“He needed Ferraris,” Sussman says. “We bought him Ferraris.”

萨斯曼说,“他需要法拉利,我们就给他买一辆法拉利。”

Shaw, a supercomputing expert, hired math and science PhDs who embraced his scientific approach to trading. He also brought on whip-smart employees from different backgrounds. English and philosophy majors were among Shaw’s favorite hires, but he also hired a chess master, stand-up comedians, published writers, an Olympic-level fencer, a trombone player, and a demolitions specialist.

肖,一位超级电脑专家,雇佣了数学和科学博士采用他的科学方法进行交易。他还招聘引进了许多不同背景的聪明人。英语和哲学专业的人是肖最喜欢雇佣的对象,但是他还招聘了国际象棋大师,脱口秀演员,出版社作家,一位奥林匹克击剑运动员,一位长号演奏家和一位爆破专家。

“We didn’t want anyone with preconceived notions,” an early executive says.

公司一位早期的高管评价说,“我们不想让任何人有先入为主的想法”。

Unlike the boisterous trading rooms of most Wall Street firms, Shaw’s offices were quiet and somber, reminding visitors of the research room of the Library of Congress, even as employees wore jeans and T-shirts. These were the early days of the internet, and academics were the only ones using email at the time, but Shaw gushed to one of his programmers about the new era’s possibilities.

和大多数华尔街公司吵闹的交易室不同,肖的办公室安静且阴沉,让来访者想起了美国国会图书馆的研究室,尽管员工们穿着牛仔和T恤衫。那时候是互联网时代的早期,只有学者们才用电子邮件,但是肖向他的一名程序员滔滔不绝的讲起了新时代的种种可能性。

“I think people will buy things on the internet,” Shaw told a colleague. “Not only will they shop, but when they buy something… they’re going to say, ‘this pipe is good,’ or ‘this pipe is bad,’ and they’re going to post reviews.”

 “我想人们以后将从互联网上买东西,”肖跟一位同事说。“他们不仅会买东西,而且会把买东西的评论也放上网,比如他们会说‘这个管子不错’或者“这个管子不行’,诸如这样的话”。

One programmer, Jeffrey Bezos, worker with Shaw a few more years before piling his belongings into a moving van and driving so Seattle, his then-wife MacKenzie behind the wheel. Along the way, Bezos worked on a laptop, pecking out a business plan for his company, Amazon.com. (He originally chose “Cadabra” but dropped the name because too many people mistook it for “Cadaver”.)

一位名叫杰弗里·贝索斯的程序员,曾在肖的公司工作过几年,后来他把自己的东西装进一辆搬家货车开到了西雅图,开车的是他当时的妻子麦肯齐。在整个车程中,贝索斯用一台笔记本电脑工作,为他自己的公司亚马逊制定商业计划。(起初,他给公司选择的名字是”Cadabra”,但后来放弃了这个名字,因为太多人错把它当成了尸体一词”Cadaver”。)

Almost as soon as he started the engines of his Ferraris, Shaw’s hedge fund minted money. Soon, it was managing several hundred million dollars, trading an array of equity-related investments, and boasting over one hundred employees.

几乎是在肖发动法拉利引擎的同时,他的对冲基金就赚到钱了。很快的,基金就开始管理数亿美元的资产,并进行了一系列与股权相关的投资,拥有超过100名员工。

Jim Simons didn’t have a clear understanding of the kind of progress Shaw and a few others were marking. He did know, if he was going to build something special to catch up with those who had a jump on him, he’d need some help. Simons called Sussman, the financier who had given David Shaw the support he needed to start his own hedge fund, hoping for a similar boost.

吉姆·西蒙斯对肖和少数其他人取得的进展并没有理解的很清楚。但是他知道,如果他想要做一些特别的东西赶上那些已经大幅领先于他的人,就需要一些帮助。金融家萨斯曼曾为大卫·肖创办对冲基金提供了支持,西蒙斯给他打电话希望也能得到类似的支援。

(免责声明:仅供个人阅读学习及翻译参考。如有不准之处,请留言帮助改进)

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